Due to the increased crush, we project an increase of 12.1 million tonnes (13.3 million short tons) in U.S. SBM output by 2030.
Where will it go and major reasons why:
Global Meal Exports are most likely to be concentrated in Southeast Asia due to increased usage and demand. U.S. Soybean Meal is also likely to capture existing market share due to high quality reputation. Competitive pricing will also help capture market share where U.S. SBM has a freight advantage over Brazil and Argentina. We estimated exports to grow by 4.8 million tonnes (5.3 million short tons)
Meal-in-Meat exports. Exporters switching from beans to meal can do so with relative ease. By contract, the infrastructure is not very similar to export meat starting with the need for cold storage. This would require considerably more capital investment. Thus, we are pessimistic in the increase of SMB exports we would see via an increase in meat exported. We see that increase of under .5 million tonnes by 2030.
That leaves 5.6 million tonnes (6.1 million short tons) remaining. This is the volume we expect to price itself in to domestic feed rations via replacement of other feed components, primarily protein meals.
The best place to increase feed inclusion rates based on dietary needs is pigs. Pigs have a relatively low inclusion rate versus poultry. Also, industry experts believe pig feed has the potential to expand to the highest inclusion rate among the major livestock sectors we investigated (broilers, layers, turkeys, dairy cattle & hogs). Pigs may have a better way to utilize SBM as an energy source as well as the traditional use as a protein source. Furthermore, hog populations are in close proximity to the main soybean-growing areas. We estimate pigs’ share of inclusion rate growth is 2/3 of the total—3.7 million tonnes (4.1 million short tons). Broilers share would be ¼ amounting to 1.4 million tonnes (1.5 million short tonnes) while Layers and Turkeys could account for .2 million tonnes each (.3 million short tons). Dairy, on the other hand, is not likely to contribute to an increase in inclusion rates as there is also a rapidly expansion of Canadian canola crush. Competitive canola meal prices are already encouraging it’s use among dairymen.