Summary of the problem: Soybean yields are limited by the environment in Minnesota. One of the most
important environmental factors that consistently limits soybean yields in the region is atmospheric
drought, or evaporative demand (Zhou et al., 2020; Kimm et al., 2020). Increasing atmospheric drought
means that the desiccation power of the air increases, and soybean plants, particularly, experience this
air drying as a stress (López et al., 2021). During the soybean growing season in Minnesota, atmospheric
drying typically increases more than 600% within the day, from 0.5 to approx. 3 kPa.

This sensitivity of soybean to atmospheric drought is apparent in large yield trials conducted across the
US. For instance, variation in atmospheric drought in the first 2-3 months of the growing season was
found to be the single most important environmental driver of yields based on soybean yield trials
conducted in 27 U.S. states between 2007 and 2016. In fact, in that analysis, the impact of atmospheric
drought was even stronger than precipitation itself (Mourtzinis et al., 2019). While this negative effect
of atmospheric drought on soybean yields is real and quantifiable, a major problem for soybean
breeders is that it is not easily detectable. This is because that this ‘stealthy’ stress does not necessarily
result in visual symptoms such as wilting or rolling, but causes yield losses. This is even more
problematic for Minnesota, where atmospheric drought limits yields while the soil is well-watered
(Sinclair et al., 2010). In fact, until we have developed our methodology (see below), this effect can only
be measured based on costly, time-consuming, multiple-location, multi-year yield trials as done in the
study of Mourtzinis et al. (2019) mentioned above. Thus, breeders cannot develop a breeding program
to boost soybean yields in response to atmospheric drought, unless a screening method for tolerance to
atmospheric drying is developed. Fortunately, our lab just developed the technology to do so, which we
have recently published in an international, peer-reviewed journal (Monnens et al., 2023).

Summary of the solution: To address this problem, our lab has developed a technology that enables
quantifying the level of stress caused by atmospheric drought in soybean, without the need for such
expensive, long-term and large-scale yield trials. This system has been successfully tested in the field,
and generated yielded results that are consistent with controlled environment experiments. This
means that soybean breeders could use our new approach to screen their genetic material, and
intentionally breed for more profitable soybeans which yields are less limited by atmospheric drought.
Thus, our proposal directly addresses growers needs for better-yielding crops and the RFP
requirement for research to target soybean production profitability.

1. Goal#1. Identify superior genotypes to be used as donor parents in the U of M soybean breeding
program and identify superior commercial varieties to be recommended to farmers.

2. Goal#2. Predict state-wide yield gains and estimate profitability for Minnesota farmers
resulting from introducing such trait in farmers’ fields.

As requested by the RFP, we have structured our proposal in such a way that the three objectives
can be conducted and completed within a 12-month period. Thus, the screening experiments will have
to be conducted and replicated a number of times under controlled but naturally-fluctuating
environments to maximize chances of success and return on investment.

At the end of this year, we expect that the breeding program to have 1) identified promising
parental lines and commercial cultivars with superior nitrogen fixation tolerance to atmospheric drought 2)and
provided a quantitative estimation of profitability (yield gains) associated with this trait for
Minnesota farmers depending on where their farms are located.

D1. A mature, non-destructive and cost-saving methodology to help the U of M soybean breeding
program conduct routine screening for nitrogen fixation performance in soybean. This methodology
could be also used to screen for nitrogen fixation response to other stresses.
D2. A selection of soybean breeding lines with superior nitrogen fixation response to atmospheric
drought. These lines will be used as donor parents in the breeding program to confer higher yield
potential.
D3. A selection of commercial, elite soybean varieties to be recommended to farmers based on their
nitrogen fixation tolerance levels atmospheric drought and the resulting yield performance estimated by
our prediction.
D4. A high-resolution (0.6mi x 0.6mi) map of soybean yield potential and expected profitability resulting
from the proposed research across soybean growing regions in the state of Minnesota.

B1. Better-yielding varieties for Minnesota soybean growers. Atmospheric drought causes stress for the
soybean crop and limits its yield potential across the nation, including Minnesota, which is already
challenged by a relatively short growing season. By breeding for improved yield under atmospheric
drought, this proposal ultimately seeks to help the U of M soybean breeding program deliver more
productive and therefore more profitable soybean varieties to Minnesota growers.
B2. Making Minnesota soybeans more competitive. The U of M breeding
program will be in a position to be the first to deliver better-yielding varieties under atmospheric drought, a problem that
faces soybean production across the entire nation.
B3. A new technology to help Minnesota growers monitor the ability of their soybean in fixing nitrogen.
The proposed research is based on a methodology that can be made available to farmers so that they
can evaluate the nitrogen fixing performance of their crop in real time.