This research builds on a previous analysis authored by Jenny Frank and Tristan Brown of the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry (SUNY-ESF) located in Syracuse, New York. The first publication from that analysis, "Quantifying the comparative value of carbon abatement scenarios over different investment timing scenarios" introduced a novel methodology for quantifying the societal climate benefit associated with the immediate use of biomass-based diesel in heavy-duty transport, rather than waiting several years for an electric solution.

This proposal seeks to build on and expand that initial work by applying the methodology established in the initial publication to include additional fuel types and vehicle classes.

The first phase of this proposal will focus on quantifying the carbon abatement value of commercially available, lipid-based, biomass-based diesel compared to waiting for the development and deployment of cellulosic diesel fuel. This research is in direct response to the NY Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA). The CLCPA projects that the state will need to increase the use of renewable diesel and biodiesel from approximately 70 million gallons today to approximately 1 billion gallons by 2030 in order to achieve the CLCPA’s decarbonization targets. At the same time the state is proposing to only allow fuels which have been derived from cellulosic biomass to qualify. Tristan and Jenny are proposing to analyze this proposed regulation using the established framework to quantify the 'climate penalty' in dollars that New York would incur by incentivizing yet-to-be-commercialized cellulosic diesel over commercially available, lipid-based biomass-based diesel.

The second phase of this proposal will apply the same methodology to quantify the carbon abatement value in dollars obtained via the electrification of certain types of medium-duty vehicles such as school buses compared to the use commercially available, lipid-based (soy oil), biomass-based diesel. This analysis expands upon the work that has already been done by analyzing medium-duty transport rather than heavy-duty.

The primary educational goal of this research is to make sure all biodiesel and renewable diesel feedstocks, including soybean oil, are included in the carbon reduction strategies of the CLCPA. If this project is successful it could open a one-billion-gallon market for biodiesel which would be expected to be approximately 50% soy-based, consuming approximately 3.7 billion pounds of soybean oil.

The primary goal of the researchers is to generate publications which can be used in the education of policymakers and environmental stakeholders. The research that has already been completed demonstrates that the value of achieving decarbonization using commercially available, lipid biomass-based diesel is greater than that provided by the electrification of heavy-duty vehicles in the future. The proposed research expands this analysis to demonstrate the value that lipid biomass-based diesel has compared to the future alternatives medium-duty vehicle electrification and cellulosic biofuels. Quantifying the carbon abatement potential of lipid-based biodiesel and renewable diesel relative to other options under the CLCPA could lead to an additional 950 million gallons of annual demand for biomass-based diesel from lipid feedstocks, including soybean oil.

Updated April 21, 2021:
January - March 2021 Sustainability Analysis

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Updated July 20, 2021:
April - June 2021 Sustainability Analysis

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Updated October 19, 2021:
July - September 2021 Sustainability Analysis

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Updated January 21, 2022:
October - December 2021 Environmental Analysis

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Growth of biodiesel and renewable diesel production and use will be key to profitability at the soybean producer level as well as throughout the value chain. As a soybean producing state, New York will benefit directly from an increase of biodiesel and renewable diesel use. Informa Economics, in 2015, concluded that biodiesel and renewable diesel had added roughly 63 cents per bushel for producers. Based on last year’s acreage that means a strong and growing biodiesel and renewable diesel market added $6,804,000 in revenue for New York soybean producers. At an individual producer level, a New York farm with 500 acres of soybeans benefited an additional $15,120 compared to prices that would have been received if there were no biodiesel and renewable diesel sales. More recently, FCStone concluded that without biodiesel and renewable diesel demand from the Renewable Fuel Standard, farmgate prices for soybean producers would be 13% less. Sustained demand from biodiesel and renewable diesel positively impacts oilseed crush margins and enhances profitability of US animal agriculture; the soybean industry’s number one customer.